It is often said that history goes round in circles. Almost every major incident in the World has some association with an event in the past. This helps historians to predict the repercussions of an incident even before anyone could foresee it. The naivety of the individuals to ignore past is what makes history repetitive. While the modern corporate World is often credited for innovating sound decision making to data, the historians cracked this puzzle centuries ago by looking at various data points in history to predict an outcome.
In my last article, I cited history to compare how the incidents of 9th May 2023 in Pakistan stack up against the burning of Reichstag Fire on 27th February 1933 in Germany. The link to that article is below.
https://waqasperspective.substack.com/p/the-reichstag-fire-of-pakistan
In both instances, a fire took place under dubious circumstances which strengthened the hand of a fascist regime. It allowed an extreme individual to go behind its opposition and round anyone who spoke against him. This begged a question if PTI will also have the same future as left wing of Germany had after Reichstag fire? Afterall history is repetitive.
One may be tempted to say the same but in the case of Germany, Nazi regime had the backing of common Germans but in Pakistan’s case, a thin minority is siding with the present repressive regime. So how can we compare the two incidents when the society dynamics are different. The common person loyalty is placed towards repressed than repressor. So, Reichstag Fire can help us to understand how fascists fashion their rise when backed by commoners, but this incident does not explain how repressive regimes stay in power when not backed by ordinary citizens. To unlock this mystery, we have to look towards 1960s Iran.
The Shah of Iran, Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, consolidated power by overthrowing Mohammed Mosaddegh government through CIA backed coup in 1953. However, he was reeling on political and economic front in 1960s. To unlock economic growth of Iran, he championed reforms known as “White Revolution”. They were called as white as they were bloodless and aimed at revolutionizing Iranian economy. These reforms included 19 agenda points ranging from land distribution to privatization of state-owned enterprises. These reforms did not have the backing of Iranian clergy in general and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in particular. He publicly criticized the Shah and lambasted the reform agenda. Khomeini delivered a fiery speech on 3rd June 1963 after which he was arrested at 3AM the following day. Once news of his arrest broke out, massive demonstrations erupted across Iran on 5th and 6th June 1963. These protests are known in history as “15 Khordad Uprising”. The demonstrators were attacking government officers, buildings, and intelligence agencies. While Pahlavi and Khomeini were already on a diverging path earlier but this incident was the first full blown clash between the supporters of two powerful individuals of Iran.
The Pahlavi regime was surprised at the outburst of Iranians. To bring the situation under control, martial law was declared, and massive crackdown began. Anyone who was even remotely linked with the demonstration was rounded up and hounded until they forsake the support of Khomeini. After few days, the situation was brought under control with the uprising quelled. Later, many pro-Pahlavi officials advocated for the execution of Khomeini. However, many intelligence officers intervened and proposed to exile him as murdering him would trigger a civil war. Khomeini was nevertheless spared and freed under eventful circumstances. After a clash on another policy decision, Khomeini was exiled. He first landed in Turkey and then Iraq in 1964. He remained in Iraq until 1978 when the then Vice President of Iraq, Saddam Hussein, tossed him out. He landed in France where he remained until the Iranian revolution of 1979. Throughout his stay in Iraq and France, he remained true to his opposition to Pahlavi. He made alliances with all anti-Pahlavi forces including communist and secular leaders. His opinion and lectures were audio recorded in Iraq and delivered across Iran through his loyal supporters to whip up public pressure. During this time, he interacted with several international media outlets too to raise awareness of international community. So, his exile helped him greatly to architect the downfall of Pahlavi while sitting securely thousands of miles away in France.
When the intensity of revolutionaries increased in Iran, it was thought that US would come to rescue Pahlavi much like they did in 1953 but that never happened. It was partly due to the bitter experience of US in Vietnam and partly due to the communication established between Khomeini and US consulate. The direct intervention of US in Iran would have further antagonized Iranians leaving no credibility of Pahlavi dynasty. So, US adopted Plan B of developing relations with Khomeini in the hopes that their interests would be protected by new incoming regime. It is though a separate story that how Khomeini turned against US after the successful revolution. The Khomeini pivot forced US to make an alliance with Iraq. They helped Saddam Hussein to plot a coup against Ahmad Hassan Al Bakr in 1979 which triggered another quagmire spanning a decade.
Now keeping this event in the history as the background, we see that a populist leader with massive support is at the center of political landscape of Pakistan. His arrest triggered massive protests. His supporters are poached, jailed, and brutalized. He has been shut out of domestic media but remains vibrant in international media. He is trying to mend relations with US while US is in alliance with the Pakistani establishment. So, if I have to chalk what is next for Imran Khan, I see clear parallels between 1970s Iran and 2020s Pakistan. If Imran Khan manages to keep his support base intact for long as Khomeini did between 1964 and 1979 and if the current fascist regime in Pakistan keeps their repression for as long as Pahlavi did, then this may trigger events in Pakistan similar to that of Iran. All Pakistanis have to do currently is not dwindle their support for Imran Khan and do not become a victim of propaganda hurled by dummies in PDM and pseudo-intellectuals in ISSB and CSS cadre. This game is a long haul.